The idea for this blog came to me last year as I was watching a Giants game on a lazy summer afternoon. I don't quite remember the opponent, but I do remember this: sometime early in the game, Buster Posey came up with no one on base and 2 outs and singled down the middle, stopping at 1st base. The inning would end with the next batter grounding out. Later in the same game, Posey came up with 2 men on and only 1 out and smacked a single over the first basemen's head. A run scored and the Giants would rally for a couple more runs after that. As I watched Posey's heroics, I thought to myself: Posey had two hits in that game, both singles, yet they were completely different hits. One came with 2 men out and no one on and did not do much to increase the Giants' chances of scoring. Yet Posey's second hit, the RBI, not only scored a run but set up the Giants for a rally thereafter. In both plate appearances, Posey hit a single, but the circumstances in which the singles were hit were completely different. In one, Posey was gifted with an impossible task: get a rally going with 2 outs and bases empty. That is nearly impossible. In the second, Posey was sent a gift from heaven, a hitter-friendly opportunity to bring a guy home. In the second plate appearance, Posey had a more favorable situation and took advantage of it. Had he, for example, grounded into a double play instead, he would have wasted this opportunity. This all was going through my head as I watched the game.
Traditional baseball statistics, such as batting average and hits, would have treated both of Posey's hits the same way: a single. But watching Posey during that game inspired me to fashion a statistic that differentiated the two hits. I wanted to discover the impact of those hits in context. And that is what I have aimed to do with my new statistic, Batter Impact.
Batter Impact is all about measuring how much a player increased his team's chances of scoring per plate appearance based on what his teammates gave him prior to his coming up to bat. Ultimately, baseball boils down to scoring runs and Batter Impact aims to quantify a player's contribution to this team goal. The statistic works like this. Before a batter takes his at-bat, his situation is noted. After the batter's at-bat is finished, either with an out, hit, walk, or any of the other possible results, the new situation is compared to previous one to see if the batter contributed positively or negatively to his team's chances of scoring. Over the course of a season, a batter will have many positive at-bats and many negative ones. Together, these at-bats can be pooled together to form a batter's Batter Impact, which shows how well a hitter utilized the opportunities presented to him to help his team score runs.
The statistic may seem complicated, and it is, but the result is simple; Batter Impact is the best and most whole way to rank the top hitters in baseball. Too many other stats treat all hits the same, when they are actually extremely different. Batter Impact has the power to distinguish between an RBI triple and an inconsequential single. Through this blog, you will have a chance to discover how Batter Impact can reveal to us which players are undervalued and overvalued, which players deserve big offseason contracts, which players certain teams should target at the trade deadline, and which players seem good on paper but should never be acquired. Join me as I chronicle the 2014 season from the lens of Batter Impact.
Traditional baseball statistics, such as batting average and hits, would have treated both of Posey's hits the same way: a single. But watching Posey during that game inspired me to fashion a statistic that differentiated the two hits. I wanted to discover the impact of those hits in context. And that is what I have aimed to do with my new statistic, Batter Impact.
Batter Impact is all about measuring how much a player increased his team's chances of scoring per plate appearance based on what his teammates gave him prior to his coming up to bat. Ultimately, baseball boils down to scoring runs and Batter Impact aims to quantify a player's contribution to this team goal. The statistic works like this. Before a batter takes his at-bat, his situation is noted. After the batter's at-bat is finished, either with an out, hit, walk, or any of the other possible results, the new situation is compared to previous one to see if the batter contributed positively or negatively to his team's chances of scoring. Over the course of a season, a batter will have many positive at-bats and many negative ones. Together, these at-bats can be pooled together to form a batter's Batter Impact, which shows how well a hitter utilized the opportunities presented to him to help his team score runs.
The statistic may seem complicated, and it is, but the result is simple; Batter Impact is the best and most whole way to rank the top hitters in baseball. Too many other stats treat all hits the same, when they are actually extremely different. Batter Impact has the power to distinguish between an RBI triple and an inconsequential single. Through this blog, you will have a chance to discover how Batter Impact can reveal to us which players are undervalued and overvalued, which players deserve big offseason contracts, which players certain teams should target at the trade deadline, and which players seem good on paper but should never be acquired. Join me as I chronicle the 2014 season from the lens of Batter Impact.
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